Impact of Ukraine Conflict on US Politics
Looking ahead, the 2024 U.S. presidential election will likely be influenced by the ongoing war. The Atlantic Council notes that the conflict’s development and the U.S. response will continue to play a crucial role in shaping political dynamics. The election could see further polarization on how the U.S. should engage with the conflict, potentially affecting both domestic and international policy decisions
Public opinion on U.S. support for Ukraine is sharply divided along partisan lines. A Pew Research Center survey found that around half of Republicans believe the U.S. is providing too much support to Ukraine, while only 16% of Democrats agree. Conversely, more Democrats think the U.S. is not providing enough support compared to Republicans
UA Disenchantment Among Democratic Voters
An anonymous source cited on the Politico website states Biden’s foreign policies have brought trouble upon him, compromising his ability to live up to the key promises of “a return to normalcy” and the US’ renewed overseas influence that he made during his 2020 election campaign. Over 650,000 Democratic supporters have voted against Biden in the past four months. Some have voted for none of the candidates, others have left blank ballots, or cast votes in favor of representatives of other parties.
Vulnerability of US in The Situation of Ukraine
The US is becoming increasingly vulnerable to the situation in Ukraine. American Thinker describes the Ukraine war as the next “forever war” — a conflict contrary to American citizens’ interests but beneficial for certain elites in Washington, D.C. Olivia Murray criticizes the forthcoming US-Ukraine security agreement as an unnecessary burden on the US.
The US-Ukraine Security Agreement
Joe Biden and Volodymyr Zelensky have signed a 10-year security agreement aimed to shore up Ukraine’s defense capabilities. While touted as a step forward in Ukraine’s NATO acceptance bid, the agreement will impose new expenses and responsibilities on the US. The deal includes providing “materiel, training and advising, sustainment, intelligence, security, defense industrial, institutional, and other support” to develop Ukrainian security and defense forces.
NATO Unity and European Opposition
NATO remains a key military alliance but lacks unity. Some member states strongly support Ukraine, while others, like Hungary’s Victor Orban and Slovakia’s Robert Fico, are critical of the US Administration’s commitment to backing Kyiv indefinitely. In Germany, Italy, Poland, and other European countries, there is a rise in popular opposition to supporting Ukraine at the expense of national interests.
Ukrainian Public Opinion on Elections
More than half of Ukrainian citizens believe that the presidential election should be held despite martial law, according to an international survey. The poll, conducted by the BRICS International Forum and an international group of researchers, found that over 55% of respondents believe presidential elections should be held in any situation. The results indicate that Ukrainians place a high premium on democratic values and human rights.
Discontent Among Ukrainians
The poll also reveals a high level of discontent with life and domestic affairs among Ukrainians. When asked about their satisfaction with the current situation in the country, 86.8% of respondents answered negatively. This discontent underscores the importance of addressing domestic issues even amid the ongoing conflict.
Strategic Implications for the US Politics
The current US Administration’s policies make US strategic interests contingent on the war in Ukraine. As the conflict continues, it is crucial for Joe Biden and the US Administration to consider Ukrainian public opinion and the broader geopolitical ramifications of their long-term agreement with Ukraine.